5 Reasons To Invest In Choppy Markets

December 24th, 2022
33

The stock market in 2018 has felt like riding a boat in choppy waters.

There have been ups. There have been downs.

As we head into the end of 2018, it feels like there have been a few more downs recently.

As of December 21st, 2022, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are down 9-10% for 2018.

These choppy markets test the resolve of investors. No market goes down without an explanation, along with a thesis for why the market could go down further. An economic slowdown, tariffs, an overextended bull market, and rising interest rates are all reasons why the stock market could go down in the future.

But investors should continue to invest in the stock market even through the choppy waters of 2018, for the following five reasons:

Reason #1: Efficient Market Hypothesis

There are millions of investors in the global stock market. They are reading the negative headlines just like you are.

It might seem like everyone wants to sell and no one wants to buy, but always remember that every trade has a buyer and a seller. If you choose to sell your shares in a down market, you will be selling to a buyer who believes that the stock market will rise in the future.

The whole premise of index fund investing is based on the belief that professional fund managers are unable to consistently beat the market. If it were so easy to avoid losses as to sell at the beginning of a bear market and buy at the end of a bear market, then investors should put money in the funds that can successfully time the market.

Reason #2: If Not Now, Then When?

One of the troubles with trying to time the beginning and end of a bear market is that once you sell, you also have to decide when to get back in.

When you try to time the market and sell, there are two possible outcomes.

The first outcome is that the stock market rises. In this case, you are losing money (or more precisely, missing out on stock market gains). At this point, you can choose to give up and cut your losses, buying back into the market at a higher level than you sold it. Or you could let it ride, hoping that the market eventually reverses itself and you are vindicated in your market timing conviction. This may happen or the stock market could continue to rise. Many investors tried to call the end of the bull market in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. These people almost all certainly left stock market gains on the table by trying to time the market.

On the other hand, maybe you’re right and the stock market falls after you sell. Now you have to decide when to take your money and buy back in. When you do, will you be buying back at the low, or just buying in the middle instead of the end of the bear market?

As the adage goes, to succeed at market timing, you have to be right twice, not just when you sell, but also when you buy.

Reason #3: You Won’t Remember When You Bought In 30 Years

Buying into a falling market is not easy for any investor, even for the White Coat Investor:

But if you’re investing in the long run, you’ll quickly forget whether you invested now or 3 months from now (when you think the stock market will be even lower).

Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 from 1990-2018:

Do you think someone who invested in 1990 cares today whether they invested at Point A or Point B?

As I wrote in a previous post, I’m sure most investors who invested in 1990 wouldn’t really care in retrospect today whether they invested in Point A or Point B.

Similarly, the expectation is that the S&P 500 will be trading at 20,000 in 2050 when many young investors will retire. Will you care in 2050 if you invested when the S&P 500 was at 2700 or 2400?

Reason #4: It Keeps Investing Simple

You can literally spend your entire day analyzing the stock market. In fact, many, many people do.

As we know, all of this analysis leads to no better (and often worse) returns for many investors, so why not have a simple investing plan where you tune out the financial news and invest your savings from your paycheck at regular intervals, independent of recent stock market moves? This enables you to spend less time worrying about the stock market and more time with family, leisure activities, or even doing work at your regular job.

Reason #5: Market Volatility Is How Your Money Is Made

Without market volatility, the stock market would not produce the high expected returns that it does. If the stock market did not have bear markets, it would have bond-like returns.

If you wanted to have no risk in your portfolio, you would invest in Treasury bonds, which are assumed to never default and you will get the interest rate you were promised at maturity (although the value of the bonds may fluctuate over that time period). But long-term Treasury bonds are currently offering 3% returns, while the stock market has had long-term returns far higher than that.

If you take no risk, the financial markets will not reward you with higher expected returns.

Conclusion

Warren Buffet famously encouraged investors to buy during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis with the following quote:

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. – Warren buffett

While this quote tacitly encourages market timing, it can help many investors get over the fear of investing in a bear market. Markets are fearful right now, and today is a day just as good as any to invest.

What do you think? How have you been investing during the recent choppy markets?

[Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com]

33 COMMENTS

  1. Great post, WSP. It’s all about sticking to the plan. I love the studies that show if you miss “x” number of the best days in the last 10-15 years how your return would be negative… And if you just staid in the market how you’d earn 8-10% over the same time period.

    The moral of the story is to just stay in the game. Very glad I don’t feel the need to check the market. If I didnt write about personal finance three times each week, I wouldn’t even know what was going on. (and wouldn’t care, because I know I’ll do better by ingoring it and just rebalancing once each year).

    Thanks for the good reminder.

    TPP

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  2. To TPP’s point, stick to your plan. But what if you decide that, in the midst of the market slide, you decide that your plan is wrong after all — you overestimated your risk tolerance and need to adjust your AA significantly?

    This is where I am at right now. It’s “only” about 10% and I’m fretting. I’m at ~65/35 stocks/bonds and feel like I need to get closer to 50/50. What’s a recommended approach in the current market climate? Big Bang? Gradually over X period of time?

    I can stay the course but not sure I’m on the right course for me. Appreciate any insights.

    • The question is whether your desire to be 50/50 is because of the recent drop or whether you truly do not believe you cannot handle this type of drop in your portfolio.

      You can drop to 50/50, but you should be committed to that 50/50 portfolio even if this recent fall is just a whipsaw and the bull market continues for another 5-10 years.

      The worst case scenario would be to have a 65/35 AA in down markets and 50/50 AA in up markets.

      -WSP

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  3. I think the best point made among a lot of good points is that in 30 years you really don’t care when you bought a particular asset if the trend of the market is always up.

    I too feel foolish placing a buy order and then see it dropped further and I may have been able to buy an extra share or two. In the long run it is inconsequential. But we are ever the bargain hunters and hate when someone got a better deal.

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  4. “Similarly, the expectation is that the S&P 500 will be trading at 20,000 in 2050 when many young investors will retire.”

    Is this really the consensus opinion? Because if true that’s a hugely convincing argument for investing in down markets…I just haven’t really seen this prediction elsewhere.

  5. This is really good advice. I try out and invest a couple hundreds (with the thought that it’s not bad even if I lose them) when the market is bullish and then yield some insane returns even in short term. You can go wrong for one or two stocks but not if you diversity and select your labels correctly.

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